By Jeffrey A. Frankel, Peter R. Orszag
An exam of U.S. fiscal coverage within the Nineteen Nineties, by means of best coverage makers in addition to educational economists.
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Thus, expected inﬂation begets actual inﬂation, which in turn begets even higher expected inﬂation. The central bank, committed to its interest-rate target, ends up increasing the money supply at an ever more rapid rate. Inﬂation spirals out of control. Fortunately, there is a simple way to avoid this problem: A central bank should raise its interest-rate target in response to any inﬂationary pressure by enough to choke off that pressure. How much is enough? Economic theory suggests a natural benchmark: if the central bank responds to a one-percentagepoint increase in inﬂation by raising the nominal interest rate by more than one percentage point, then the real interest rate will rise, cooling off the economy.
Such automatic reductions in real wages are impossible with zero inﬂation. S. monetary policy in the 1990s. Once again, Lawrence Summers endorsed this view at the beginning of the decade when he proposed a target rate of inﬂation of 2 to 3 percent. S. monetary policy-makers during the 1990s may have been skeptical about the desirability of pushing inﬂation all the way down to zero. The 3 percent inﬂation realized during this period may have been exactly what they were aiming for. 4 Real Economic Performance: Unemployment and Growth The other key aspect of macroeconomic performance beyond inﬂation is the real economy, which is most often monitored by unemployment and growth in real GDP.
8 percent in May 1989. This Fed tightening, together with other factors, pushed the economy into a recession the following year. More than any other single event, the recession set the stage for the economic policies of the 1990s: it helped Bill Clinton, a little-known governor from Arkansas, defeat George Bush, an incumbent president who, only a short time earlier, had enjoyed overwhelming popularity following the Gulf War. The Clinton years brought their own challenges to monetary policy-makers.
American Economic Policy in the 1990s by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Peter R. Orszag